Looking back in December 2016’s game, the four teams that will be competing for the finals will be Clemson, Alabama, Michigan and Oklahoma with rankings from one to four respectively. FiveThirtyEight even made an analysis for each team’s performances. They proposed that Alabama will have an FPI of 68% success rate making to finals with a minus two difference than Oklahoma. It will then be followed by Clemson and Michigan at about 34% and 32% respectively. But then, even when Alabama has the highest percentage, Oklahoma has gained a 41% national title of the games that they played so far as compared to their 34%. It is then followed by Clemson and Michigan with 15% and 10%.
The reason why Oklahoma has become the national favorite is that the Sooners have the highest FPI rating in FBS football. The FPI is a measurement technique that is used to calculate the probability of winning during the playoffs. Oklahomais believed to be at par with Clemson’s 34% FPI rating and has the highest percentage in beating the Clemson that year.
Teams such as Alabama competing against Michigan St.’s Washington cannot be just left behind. Alabama shocked FiveThirtyEight’s model data by moving up to number three based on their FPI rating of 32%. Even if their rating has spiked up, it does not mean that they can beat the Spartans easily. Alabama is better than Clemson based on their FPI rating and Michigan St. has only a 32% FPI rating to reach the final associated to the 42% chance that they had if Spartans competes against Clemson. The game was held at the Fiesta Bowl.
All this aside, the FPI rating made a good prediction for these teams. Alabama won against Michigan and then Clemson won against Ohio State. Alabama will be competing against Clemson.